COP31 in Antalya – Australia takes the gavel at the “Implementation COP”

Two hosts and a region

As our COP30 wrap-up noted, the Belém conference ended a protracted contest over hosting rights by endorsing the Türkiye–Australia joint arrangement. Under it, Türkiye hosts COP31 and runs the Action Agenda, while Australia’s Minister for Climate Change and Energy, Chris Bowen, serves as President of Negotiations. Fiji and Tuvalu hosted the Pre-COP in early October.

The backdrop is sobering. In their joint letter of 5 October, the incoming Presidencies acknowledged that the world is now likely to pass 1.5°C within a few years, with the most optimistic pathway peaking at around 1.8°C. The mid-2026 blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and the inflationary pressure it fuelled, has given energy security arguments for the transition fresh urgency. The Presidencies have accordingly cast Antalya as a conference about delivery rather than new pledges, focusing on turning commitments from the Paris Agreement into practical outcomes. As their October letter puts it:

“Climate action must be judged not only by the decisions we take, but by the outcomes those decisions enable.”

Australia arguably arrives with some credibility on that score. Renewables generated more than half of Australia’s power by the close of 2025, and the Government has committed to a 2035 target of 62–70% below 2005 levels. Its declared COP31 priorities are a faster clean energy shift, more finance and investment, a larger green economy and a stronger voice for the Pacific. However, Australia has also faced criticism for the fact that new gas and expanded coal projects continue to be approved.

Five milestones on the road to Antalya

Bonn: the can is kicked down the road

The SB64 sessions (8–18 June) adopted their agendas on day one, but that early efficiency did not last. The Mitigation Work Programme ended with procedural conclusions only, all Global Goal on Adaptation items were sent to Antalya, and the Secretariat disclosed a shortfall of almost US$9 million in funding for Article 6.2 infrastructure. The result is that much of the substantive work now falls to Minister Bowen’s team.

Istanbul: closing the finance “chasm”

At the Istanbul Climate Finance Summit (4–5 September), COP31 President-Designate Murat Kurum put annual climate finance needs at US$7.5–9 trillion, against roughly US$1.9 trillion mobilised, and urged leaders to give climate investment the same strategic priority as defence. His summary was blunt: “without finance, there is no implementation”. UNDP was appointed delivery partner for the Presidency’s Climate Implementation Bridge (BRIDGE), which matches country project pipelines with finance and technical partners. Development banks, climate funds and private financiers signed the Istanbul Declaration on Climate Implementation and Finance, endorsing BRIDGE and the electrification goal.

In a world where most developed countries are now struggling with significant debt burdens and little capacity to raise additional revenues, closing the finance gap will continue to be a challenge. New funding from private finance, and how this can be incentivised, will be critical.

Fiji and Tuvalu: Taku Pakasoa

Pre-COP drew more than 4,000 participants from upwards of 100 countries. Leaders adopted the Taku Pakasoa Declaration (a Tuvaluan expression of strength found in unity), which Australia signed. It calls on outstanding Parties to lodge their 2035 Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and restates the COP28 goals on renewables, energy efficiency and transitioning away from fossil fuels. That restatement is notable given that fossil fuel language fell out of the final Belém text. The Declaration also welcomes the goal of electricity supplying 35% of global final energy by 2035, a benchmark that Climate Resource’s analysis for the Presidency found consistent with the lowest-overshoot pathways: a rise from about 23% today to a median 35% by 2035, against a current-policy trajectory just under 30%.

Pre-COP also built support for a Presidency-led decision in Antalya covering 1.5°C, electrification, finance, early warning systems, forests and oceans. Australia used the meeting to launch an Access to Finance Statement and Action Plan, to make climate finance faster, simpler and more accessible, with a focus on reducing barriers that delay funding reaching vulnerable communities. Other countries can join as part of the COP31 Action Agenda.

IPCC 7th Assessment Report in limbo

The IPCC’s 65th session (12–16 October) held in Addis Ababa was suspended without agreeing when the three Working Group reports of the Seventh Assessment Report will be delivered, or the Panel’s budget. One bloc wants all three finalised during 2028 so they can feed into the second Global Stocktake, which formally opens at COP31; another prefers to push two of them into 2029. Pacific and least developed countries can be expected to press the point in Antalya, because the timing determines what science informs the next round of NDCs.

COP30 Presidency Roadmap

A week before the commencement of COP31, the Brazilian COP30 Presidency released the Roadmap for Transitioning Away from Fossil Fuels in Energy Systems. The Roadmap is designed to help implement the COP28 Global Stocktake call to transition away from fossil fuels "in a just, orderly and equitable manner". Although a voluntary contribution and not a negotiated or binding decision, it reflects contributions from a number of groups representing 115 Parties and addresses a notable omission from the final decision text at Belem. The Roadmap is therefore likely to renew focus on international efforts at COP31 to transition away from fossil fuels including phasing out fossil fuel subsidies.

The issues for Australian business

Mitigation ambition: a programme in search of a mandate

The Mitigation Work Programme is the only UNFCCC track devoted solely to mitigation, and it is up for review. Parties are split over whether its mandate ends in 2030, and Bonn produced no text to work from. The Presidencies want a more effective programme that stays facilitative while preserving the nationally determined character of NDCs - a modest ambition, but probably a realistic one.

For emissions-intensive sectors such as LNG, metals and cement, the outcome will feed into expectations of Australia’s next NDC and, in turn, into Safeguard Mechanism baselines. The questions to watch are whether the programme survives beyond 2030 and whether the Presidency-led decision carries any reference to fossil fuel transition or to the electrification benchmark.

Carbon markets: demand without the funding

The appetite for Article 6.2 cooperation is clear: 48 cooperative arrangements have been lodged and 67 governments intend to use the international registry. The difficulty is money. Only around US$2.1 million of US$10.7 million in approved expenditure had been secured by June, and Parties disagree on whether users should pay fees. A further obstacle is that the Adaptation Fund cannot receive Article 6.4 share-of-proceeds revenue until its transition to the Paris Agreement is completed, which the Presidency has made a priority.

Without functioning infrastructure, the market for internationally transferred mitigation outcomes could mature more slowly than participants hope. For Australian buyers, sellers and project developers, including those looking to the Pacific (Fiji launched a five-year carbon market plan at Pre-COP), the funding model and integrity safeguards agreed in Antalya will matter more than any headline.

Adaptation: indicators awaiting a method

Belém adopted the Belém Adaptation Indicators but left the methodology unfinished. In Bonn, Parties could not agree on the membership of the technical taskforce or whether its work should be tied to the Belém pledge on tripling adaptation finance by 2035. The Presidencies want Antalya to establish the taskforce, operationalise the Belém-Addis Vision and settle the future of the Baku Adaptation Roadmap.

For agriculture, infrastructure, insurance, water and property, the absence of agreed indicators means there is no multilateral yardstick for corporate resilience and supply-chain planning. Physical risk disclosures will in the meantime likely continue to rest on company-specific methodologies.

Just transition: settling the mechanism

COP30 created a Just Transition Mechanism but left its design open. The choice is between a new constituted body and a lighter coordinating function, and the Presidencies want its functions, governance and modalities agreed in Antalya. The review of the UAE Just Transition Work Programme, whose terms of reference were settled in Bonn, is due at the same time.

Miners, gas producers and energy-intensive manufacturers should take an interest. The mechanism may shape international expectations on redeploying workers, sharing benefits with host communities and the governance of critical minerals supply chains, all of which are already factors in project approvals and investor scrutiny in Australia.

Trade and climate: the CBAM meter is running

The EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) moved into its definitive phase on 1 January 2026. Certificate sales start on 1 February 2027, and the first declaration and surrender, covering 2026 imports, falls due by 30 September 2027. The EU institutions are now negotiating an extension to downstream steel and aluminium goods from 2028, and the UK’s own CBAM commences on 1 January 2027. At home, the Carbon Leakage Review’s final report is being considered in the 2026–27 Safeguard Mechanism review. The Review observed that well-designed overseas border adjustments could reward Australian low-emissions commodities.

In the UNFCCC, the first of three annual trade dialogues was held in Bonn. Developing countries pressed their objection to unilateral trade measures, and some groups want a standing agenda item. Whatever happens in Antalya, verified product-level emissions data is fast becoming a condition of market access for Australian exporters including of metals, fertilisers and hydrogen.

Climate finance: from goals to pipelines

The Baku goal sets a floor for developed countries of US$300 billion annually by 2035, inside a broader US$1.3 trillion goal from all sources. Australia, as part of the Umbrella Group, reaffirmed both goals in Bonn. Parties however remain divided over the scope of the Climate Finance Work Programme.

The more significant change for capital markets is the shift in emphasis from headline numbers to deployment. BRIDGE, the Istanbul Declaration and the Access to Finance Statement all target the gap between pledges and projects. That gap is visible in the Pacific, where over US$5 billion of more than US$16 billion committed since the Paris Agreement remains undisbursed. The Presidencies have pointed to Australia’s NDC Investment Blueprint and to the Article 2.1(c) dialogue on aligning financial flows as potential means to bridge the gap. For lenders, super funds and insurers that already report under Australia’s mandatory climate disclosure regime, the latter may signal future regulatory expectations.

Implications for Australian businesses

While there is no expectation that Antalya will deliver any new binding obligations, it will set directions with its focus on implementation. Businesses should be:

• testing strategy and disclosures against an overshoot scenario and the “35 by 35” benchmark, ahead of the next NDC and the Safeguard Mechanism review;

• mapping CBAM exposure, including the proposed downstream extension, and investing in verified emissions data;

• revisiting carbon market strategies in light of the Article 6 funding and integrity outcomes;

• aligning physical risk assessments with the emerging adaptation indicators;

• building just transition and benefit-sharing commitments into project planning, particularly for critical minerals and energy infrastructure; and

• engaging with BRIDGE, the Action Agenda coalitions and Pacific finance initiatives to identify blended finance and co-investment opportunities.