COP30 Belém wraps up – Resolving to go faster, slowly at the COP of (hard) truth

COP30^[1] in Belém, Brazil concluded on 22 November 2025 with the adoption of a package of decisions, with the primary political agreements recorded in a cover decision called the Mutirão Decision (meaning collective effort). This included decisions about the "big 4" contentious issues not included in the formal agenda for COP30 but dealt with as a separate track of negotiations by the COP Presidency through Ministerial and Heads of Delegation consultations:

• developed countries' finance provision obligations under Article 9.1 of the Paris Agreement;

• unilateral trade measures;

• mitigation ambition; and

• progress reports on national efforts to implement NDCs.

At the opening of COP30, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva  declared it would be known as "the COP of truth". What transpired, and the final decisions made at COP30, underscore the continuing challenge and complexity of multilateral, consensus decision-making, and the hard work that remains to be done over the next critical decade to keep the goals of the Paris Agreement within reach. As UN Secretary-General António Guterres observed at the G20 Summit in Johannesburg:

“But COPs are consensus-based – and in a period of geopolitical divides, consensus is ever harder to reach. I cannot pretend that COP30 has delivered everything that is needed.” Overshoot of 1.5°C is a stark warning: deep, rapid emission cuts and massive climate finance are essential…. COP30 is over, but the work is not.”

No fossil fuel phase out (yet)

The conclusion of the conference was not without controversy (or a flood and fire) with numerous points of order and objections being taken during the closing plenary session to the adoption of a number of the decisions. The most significant point of contention was the removal of any reference to reducing fossil fuels from the final text during the final negotiations. Juan Carlos Monterrey, Climate Envoy for Panama, is reported to have stated in response:

“It fails the Amazon, it fails science, it fails justice, and it fails the people we’re here to represent. ... Failing to name the causes of the climate crisis is not compromise. It’s denial. It’s criminal.”

Many Pacific island states, the EU and Australia had called for efforts to accelerate the world's transition away from coal, oil and gas. The Brazilian Government had proposed including the development of a road map in the decision text, which would make good the commitment at COP28 to plan the phasing out of fossil fuels. Ultimately, the removal of any road map from the final text is a major win for oil-rich Arab countries, Russia, India and developing countries dependent on such fuels, an outcome which appears on its face to be contrary to the Paris Agreement's "no-backsliding" principle.

The highest the parties' agreement now comes to is to launch a Global Implementation Accelerator to keep 1.5°C within reach, "taking into account" previous COP decisions, including the oblique reference to a phase-out in the United Arab Consensus at COP28. Meetings will be organised in 2026 in the lead up to COP31 to exchange views and experiences to accelerate implementation of NDCs and national adaptation plans as a mechanism to identify opportunities to reduce fossil fuel use.

In response to the omission of any reference to fossil fuels in the decision text, the Columbian government called for a road map to end the world’s use of fuels like coal and gas, known as the Belém Declaration. More than 80 countries, including Australia, signed up to it and committed themselves to work together towards a “just, orderly and equitable” transition away from fossil fuels consistent with limiting average global heating to 1.5°C above preindustrial levels. An international conference on fossil fuel phase-out, to be co-hosted by Columbia and the Netherlands, will take place in April 2026.

There remains the potential for any road map developed under the Belém Declaration to converge with the UNFCCC processes as part of the meetings to take place during 2026 in the lead up to COP31, but the forces ranged against it which united in their opposition at COP30 are unlikely to be easily overcome.

Just Transition Mechanism

A Just Transition Mechanism is to be established to increase international cooperation, technical assistance, capacity-building and knowledge-sharing to facilitate the transition to low emissions economy.

The subsidiary bodies to the COP have been tasked with working on a draft decision to operationalise the mechanism in June 2026 for possible adoption at COP31. In contrast to the lack of action on fossil fuels, the decisions continue to recognise and emphasise that access to clean, reliable and sustainable renewable energy technologies plays a key role in the just transition and in providing energy security. There is no reference to the role of transition fuels, like gas.

Adaptation finance

Developing countries had wanted a tripling of adaptation finance by 2030 from US$40bn agreed at COP26, but the final text now merely calls for efforts to at least triple adaptation finance by 2035, some five years later. It has been suggested that this compromise was a tradeoff for the omission of any reference to phasing out fossil fuels in the final text.

Global Goal on Adaptation

Developing countries argued against the adoption of mandatory reporting based on a set of adaptation indictors, despite these indicators having been developed by technical experts to assist in assessing progress in adapting to the impacts of climate change. Without financial support and capacity-building, these countries submitted that too much was already being expected of them.

As a compromise, the parties agreed to adopt the Belém Adaptation Indicators, this adoption expressly says it does not create any new legal obligations, nor establish standardised methodologies. Parties, in particular developing countries, are merely invited to make use of the indicators as appropriate in their reporting including in their biennial transparency reports, which could undermine the effectiveness and utility of reports which assess progress in adaptation to climate change impacts. The parties did agree a two-year work programme to develop guidance for operationalising the Belém Adaptation Indicators, and a review of the indicators after the second GST in 2029.

Unilateral trade measures

UTMs remained a very contentious issue throughout the two weeks of COP30, with many countries and groups opposing Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanisms such as the EU CBAM. This brought to the fore for the first time trade issues and how they intersect with climate action, and how they should be addressed: as part of the COP dialogue or through existing forums such as the WTO?

The Mutirão Decision reaffirmed that parties should cooperate to promote open international trade, and measures to combat climate change should not constitute a means of restriction on that trade. Subsidiary bodies to the COP will hold dialogues over the next two years on enhancing international cooperation related to the role of trade, which should include the WTO and other stakeholders.

Mitigation ambition

Little concrete progress was made in bridging the well understood gap between parties' NDCs and Paris goals. In addition to the adoption of the Global Implementation Accelerator, the Belém Mission to 1.5°C was launched, an initiative intended to help countries deliver on their NDCs, national climate action plans and adaptation plans, with work on that initiative to be reported at COP31.

Carbon markets

The negotiations around the markets established under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement were largely technical in nature, with the focus under Article 6.2 on responding to the outcomes of the expert review of parties' cooperative approaches, including the need for further guidance to address inconsistencies. The parties agreed to hold an interactive dialogue in 2026 to facilitate identification of recurring themes and lessons learned from the technical expert review of the cooperative approaches, with a view to also supporting capacity building for least developed countries and small island developing states.

In relation to the UN supervised sustainable market mechanism established under Article 6.4, decisions concerned the making of methodologies by the Supervisory Body (including revision of CDM methodologies for activities which are being transitioned), the nomination by parties of designated national authorities responsible for facilitating projects within a host country, and for parties to specify their requirements to host activities covered by the mechanism.

Action Agenda

Beyond the negotiations at COP30, the Brazilian Government also pursued outcomes of its Action Agenda, culminating is a range of voluntary commitments as detailed in its Outcomes Report Global Climate Action Agenda at COP 30. These include:

• Tropical Forests Forever Fund: Raised US$5.5 billion and now includes 53 participating countries; at least 20 per cent of resources go directly to Indigenous Peoples and local communities.

• Belém Health Action Plan: The first global initiative targeting climate-related health threats, launched with $300 million from 35 philanthropic organizations.

• Belém Declaration for Green Industrialisation: An initiative of a group of countries including Brazil, the UK and South Africa in collaboration with industry and research partners to deliver green industrialization, particularly in emerging economies.

• Utilities for Net Zero Alliance: Public utility companies pledged $66 billion annually for renewable energy and $82 billion for transmission and storage.

• Cities, regions and companies: A coalition spanning 25,000 buildings reported cutting over 850,000 tons of CO₂ in 2024.

Somewhat perversely, the outcomes of the COP30 Global Climate Action Agenda underline the significant role of initiatives outside the UNFCCC process to drive mitigation and adaptation outcomes, including the importance of non-State actors in delivering the necessary actions to address the risk of climate change.

COP31

The parties also agreed on future COP hosts, resolving after more than three years of dispute to endorse the agreement reached between Türkiye and Australia that the conference will be held in Antalya, Türkiye with Australia serving as the President of Negotiations.

In a statement issued by the Australian Government, Türkiye, in addition to being the President of COP31, will also be responsible for the COP31 Action Agenda, which will give it great influence in shaping the political negotiations and outcomes outside the formal UNFCCC process.

Implications for Australian businesses

While the outcomes of COP30 fall short of the certainty that business would have liked to have seen, the clear imperative remains delivering climate change action consistent with achieving the Paris goals. For Australian businesses, national policy including the 2035 target make that trajectory clear, including with it the need to augment existing domestic policies and schemes to achieve it.

Australia's further commitments including under the Belém Declaration to establish a road map to phase out fossil fuels will present further challenges both to business and all levels of government. Reconciling that commitment and any future road map with Australia's own energy transition, may require a revision of the sectoral plans recently released as part of the Net Zero Plan to identify further opportunities for decarbonisation.

Key takeaways

Despite the Mutirão Decision recording the parties' resolution to go further and faster in the implementation of the Paris Agreement, the outcome of COP30 represents a further demonstration of international climate policy incrementalism. The outcomes fall far short of the decisive actions required in what is recognised as the next critical decade to keep the Paris goals within reach. Greater speed in efforts to decarbonize the world's economy is required if this is to be realised.

Efforts outside of the UNFCCC process, many of which are influenced by the economic, energy security and environmental imperatives of party countries, may well be more effective in addressing the risks of climate change. Australian leadership at COP31 will be sorely tested in seeking to successfully progress negotiations on key contentious issues such as mitigation ambition and bridging the significant gap between parties' commitments in their NDCs and the goals of the Paris Agreement.