Australia's first National Climate Risk Assessment Report and National Adaptation Plan

The Australian Climate Service (a partnership between the Bureau of Meteorology, CSIRO, ABS and Geoscience Australia) has released Australia’s first National Climate Risk Assessment alongside the Commonwealth government's National Adaptation Plan. Together they map physical risks presented by climate change to 2050 and beyond and set out how federal, state and territory governments will coordinate adaptation.

The National Assessment considered 10 priority hazards (including temperature increases, drought, bushfires, storms, flooding and ocean warming) over historical (1850-1900), current (2011-2030), medium (2041-2060) and long-term (2081-2090) time horizons under different climate scenarios (+1.5°C, +2.0°C, +3.0°C global warming levels) across 11 geographic regions of Australia. Priority risks for each region were then assessed across 8 key risk systems: Aboriginal and Torres Straight Islander Peoples, communities, defence, economy, health, infrastructure, natural environment and primary industries. The National Adaptation Plan responds to the findings in the Assessment and provides specific guidance on adapting to climate risks, by establishing a framework for Australian Government action.

The message is clear: climate risk is now being systematically assessed at national scale, and state policy frameworks are maturing to match.

National Climate Risk Assessment

The Assessment has found that climate hazards are predicted to worsen under all plausible climate scenario futures. Climate change is projected to drive up economic costs, disrupt critical infrastructure and supply chains, threaten health and wellbeing, and endanger ecosystems and biodiversity.

The National Assessment used 11 geographic regions to assess and highlight different risks and impacts (see 'Regional Insights' map below). Queensland and Victoria were split into (north and south regions) and Antarctica and Australia's Exclusive Economic Zone were also included. The regions were chosen to reflect the varying climates and accompanying hazards which require specific risk assessment and policy-making from decision-makers.

Vulnerable groups were highlighted as facing the greatest risks. These groups included the elderly, very young, those with health conditions, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples, and residents of coastal, northern and remote communities. The risks they are particularly exposed to are property damage, property and infrastructure damage, business interruptions and the loss of homes (particularly in coastal areas vulnerable to sea level rises).

Further, the Assessment notes that the difference between +2.0°C and +3.0°C of global warming is significant, increasing the frequency and severity of extreme weather events. Such changes to weather events will cause cascading and compounding impacts which will increase damage and subsequent spending. The assessment highlights that compounding hazards will become more common, amplifying negative impacts across sectors and regions. Economic costs from climate-related disasters are thus expected to rise, with disaster recovery funding potentially increasing five- to six-fold by 2090 without effective adaptation.

It is clear that early coordinated adaption and risk reduction measures are far more cost-effective than reactive, post-disaster spending. Investing in resilience now significantly reduces the long term financial, social and environmental costs of climate change for Australia. The Assessment stresses that current adaptation efforts are insufficient and calls for improved governance, investment, and integration of Indigenous knowledge to address adaption.

National Adaptation Plan

The National Adaptation Plan subsequently outlines the strategic framework for adapting to the priority risks of climate change that the Assessment highlighted. The Plan outlines the priority risks and steps out actions required across 7 systems: economy; trade and finance; infrastructure and built environment; primary industries and food; health and social support; communities – urban, regional and remote; and defence and national security.

The Plan is guided by targeted, evidence-based and collaborative principles. Australian Government actions are not considered narrowly, but rather account for the need for the involvement of regulators, the private sector and non-government actors such as community involvement, particularly that of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities.

The Plan is also necessarily flexible, understanding the complex and changing risk calculations and stimuli to respond to. The Plan consists of a cycle of assessing risk, planning, implementing, evaluating and adjusting. Accordingly, a monitoring, evaluation and learning system for the Plan will be developed. This system will track implementation and effectiveness of adaptation actions in order to advise on the ongoing implementation of the Plan.

The national picture

Critical energy and transport assets face increasing exposure across urban and regional Australia. Flood-driven disruption to freight and supply chains could be materially higher by 2090 than today. Water security pressures will intensify where communities rely on streamflow, including in Tasmania, the Murray-Darling Basin and coastal NSW. Ecosystem resilience is lowest in historically cleared landscapes, and coastal communities – especially low-lying areas – face rising hazards with sea-level rise.

State and Territory highlights

Australian Capital Territory

By 2030, a significant number of small businesses across NSW/ACT are projected to fall into above-average-risk locations, depending on warming scenarios. The ACT’s settings include the Climate Change and Greenhouse Gas Reduction Act 2010, a 2022 climate risk assessment and the ACT Climate Change Strategy 2019-25, with a new strategy in development.

Victoria

Sea-level rise is a standout risk, with escalating physical and economic impacts through 2040, 2070 and 2100 and a growing number of at-risk residential and commercial buildings. Other prominent risks include heatwaves, flood-driven freight disruption, longer drought periods and low terrestrial ecosystem resilience. The state operates under the Climate Change Act 2017 (Vic), with climate science reports, a whole-of-government risk disclosure statement and Adaptation Action Plans 2022-2026.

New South Wales

New South Wales coastal communities are increasingly threatened by sea level rise and coastal erosion and Northern Rivers regions are vulnerable to repeated and severe flooding. Urban areas face heightened risks from rising heat and infrastructure strain. Energy infrastructure is widely exposed, and modelling of the 2022 floods shows the value of blocked freight in NSW/VIC could roughly double by 2090 (in today’s dollars). Water security is vulnerable along the coast and in stream-reliant regions. NSW is operating under the Climate Change (Net Zero Future) Act 2023, a 5-yearly risk and opportunity cycle, and the Climate Change Adaptation Action Plan 2025-2029.

Queensland

North Queensland communities already sit in the highest exposure bands, with residential risk increasing under sea-level rise scenarios. Queensland faces risks from tropical cyclones, extreme heat and flooding, the impacts of which being exacerbated by limited infrastructure and reliance on agriculture in regional and remote communities. Queensland climate legislation includes the Clean Economy Jobs Act 2024 (Qld), the Queensland Climate Adaptation Strategy 2017-2030, the Future Climate Science Program and whole-of-government risk tools and guidelines. The Government has flagged a Net Zero Roadmap to 2050.

South Australia

Increasing aridity, declining streamflow and water security challenges are front of mind, alongside coastal erosion and saline intrusion in low-lying communities. The Eyre Peninsula is highlighted for high freshwater loss risk. Agriculture and primary industries are at risk from changing rainfall patterns and water scarcity. SA’s framework includes the Climate Change and Greenhouse Emissions Reduction Act 2007 (SA) and its first statewide Climate Change Risk Assessment due in the second half of 2025; climate concepts are being embedded in the Environment Protection Act 1993.

Northern Territory

Extreme heat intensifies markedly, and by 2050 about one-fifth of residential buildings are expected to sit in high or very high risk for multiple hazards. Tropical cyclones and flooding are also modelled to increase. Remote Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities face compounding vulnerabilities, including water insecurity and disrupted supply chains. The NT is developing a whole-of-territory risk assessment and progressing the next phase of its climate policy, supported by a long-term remote housing program.

Tasmania

Time spent in drought increases under all scenarios. The kanamaluka/Tamar Estuary case study shows Launceston’s flood risk rising this century, with levee upgrades flagged as necessary as sea levels rise and rainfall patterns shift. Tasmania’s Climate Change (State Action) Act 2008 (Tas) mandates regular risk assessments and action plans; the first statewide risk assessment (Nov 2024) now guides sectoral resilience plans through 2025, with an independent Act review due in 2025.

Western Australia

In North-WA, communities face very high exposure to heat, cyclones, bushfire and associated infrastructure risk; in South-WA, long-term drying threatens agriculture, while saline intrusion jeopardises freshwater sources. WA’s current policy mix includes the WA Climate Policy and a Climate Adaptation Strategy (2023) with 37 actions; a Climate Risk Framework for agencies is in development for 2026, and earlier climate legislation has lapsed.